Logo of Phnom Penh Post newspaper Phnom Penh Post - What next for oil after April downtrend rebound?

What next for oil after April downtrend rebound?

Content image - Phnom Penh Post
PP Link Securities Deputy General Manager Nhim Kosol

What next for oil after April downtrend rebound?

Oil rebounded from April’s downward movement to reach a May monthly peak of $73.85, with momentum building after hitting mid-March’s strong support level of $64.

Crude had been in a month-long bearish trend after April 12’s high of $83.30 per barrel, dropping to a low of $63.65 in early May.

In Monday (May 15) trading, prices performed well on bullish momentum, rising 1.5 per cent from a low of $69.40 to a major high of $71.65.

The increase resulted from the US Department of Energy (DOE) announcing an initial purchase of three million barrels of crude from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) under President Joe Biden’s three-part replenishment plan, with delivery in August.

But oil could face difficulties in building a bullish trend, with last week’s report on US stockpiles rising by three million barrels adding to concerns over US growth after retail sales data showed a disappointing rise of 0.4 per cent, lower than the expected 0.8 per cent.

The debate on raising the US debt ceiling and uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve rate hikes to fight inflation are also still weighing on the market.

“The US Treasury Department has estimated that the US could go into a crippling default as early as June 1 if Congress does not raise the debt ceiling,” Reuters reported on May 16.

And economic data from China – the world’s largest oil consumer – released this week will also likely restrain the market from climbing and creating bullish momentum.

While industrial production showed an improvement at 5.6 per cent from 3.9 per cent, this was lower than the expected 10.9 per cent, with retail sales posting 18.4 per cent from 10.6 per cent, below the predicted 22 per cent.

Oil on Wednesday was trading around $70 below the 50-day moving average of $74.85 and the 200-day moving average of $80.40, which confirmed the downtrend in the daily timeframe.

For the hourly timeframe, oil is still trading in the previous week’s bounce market range of $69.35 and $73.85.

Oil could this week move lower to retest the strong support of $64, while the market could confirm bullishness with prices breaking $73.85 to retest $79.50.

Content image - Phnom Penh Post


  • Joy as Koh Ker Temple registered by UNESCO

    Cambodia's Koh Ker Temple archaeological site has been officially added to UNESCO’s World Heritage List, during the 45th session of the World Heritage Committee held in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on September 17. The ancient temple, also known as Lingapura or Chok Gargyar, is located in

  • Ream base allegations must end, urges official

    A senior government official urges an end to the allegations and suspicions surrounding the development of Cambodia’s Ream Naval Base, now that Prime Minister Hun Manet has addressed the issue on the floor of the 78th UN General Assembly (UNGA 78). Jean-Francois Tain, a geopolitical

  • Cambodia set to celebrate Koh Ker UNESCO listing

    To celebrate the inscription of the Koh Ker archaeological site on UNESCO’s World Heritage List, the Ministry of Cults and Religion has appealed to pagodas and places of worship to celebrate the achievement by ringing bells, shaking rattles and banging gongs on September 20. Venerable

  • CP denied registration documents by ministry

    The Ministry of Interior will not reissue registration documents to the Candlelight Party (CP). Following a September 21 meeting between ministry secretary of state Bun Honn and CP representatives, the ministry cited the fact that there is no relevant law which would authorise it to do

  • Manet touches down in Beijing for high-level meetings

    Prime Minister Hun Manet arrived in Beijing on September 14 for his first official visit to China, where he is slated to attend the 20th China-ASEAN Expo and meet other leaders including Chinese President Xi Jinping. Upon his arrival, Manet laid a wreath at the Monument

  • Cambodian diaspora laud Manet’s UN Assembly visit

    Members of the Cambodian diaspora are rallying in support of Prime Minister Hun Manet’s forthcoming visit to the 78th UN General Assembly (UNGA 78) in the US’ New York City this week. Their move is an apparent response to a recent call by self-exiled former