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The USD/JPY outlook ahead of key Fed meet

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Naoto Arase, Head of the Fintech Department at PPLS.

The USD/JPY outlook ahead of key Fed meet

The US dollar-Japanese yen (USD/JPY) currency pair has entered a corrective phase following its high of 146.54 yen on the morning of August 17 and fall to 144.93 in the early hours of August 19.

However, with a climb towards the night of August 21, it recovered to the 146-yen level, suggesting it has entered a new upward phase from the low of August 19.

Based on the August 17 peak as a reference, the formation of a near-term high is expected until the morning of August 24.

Should the stock market drop before the speech by US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on August 25, a subsequent rise could signal the start of a new upward trend and increase the momentum of the rally.

The Fed’s three-day annual Jackson Hole meeting is attended by central bank leaders from around the globe.

In the Ichimoku Cloud on the 60-minute chart, due to the climb before August 21, the lagging span has improved and the leading span has also risen.

Therefore, priority should be given to testing higher prices while the lagging span is improving.

However, if it falls below the leading span and starts to decline, caution should be exercised as it could signal a resumption of the downward trend, and priority should be given to testing lower prices while the lagging span is deteriorating.

The relative strength index (RSI) on the 60-minute chart showed a bullish divergence, with the bottom of the index rising during the decline from the afternoon of August 18 to the following morning, reaching 70 points during the night of August 21.

It should be noted that there is still a distance from the high level of August 17.

If it falls below 50 points, a resumption of the decline is likely, with a drop to the 30-point range expected.

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